Afghans at Risk of Hunger in Wake of Conflict Escalation in Iran, New Research Shows

Herat, March 2026 – International aid agency World Vision is warning of a rapidly worsening hunger crisis in Afghanistan after escalating regional conflict led Iran to halt food exports. Afghanistan is almost completely reliant on either Iran or Pakistan for imports. But trade with its neighbours has now largely dried up following a significant escalation in hostilities over the border region with Pakistan, and amid widening conflict across parts of the Middle East and Gulf region.

Food shortages, price spikes and the forced return of nearly two million Afghans from Iran over the past year are now conspiring to create a massive hunger and economic crisis for a country where 3.7 million children are already acutely malnourished.

New research by World Vision and Samuel Hall reveals a growing crisis. Mass deportations and lost remittances have pushed thousands into deep debt. Families now face severe food insecurity and harmful coping mechanisms. The study confirms that children suffer most in this economic downturn. Afghanistan imports 80% of its market needs. Iran is typically the largest supplier of these vital food and agricultural products.

The report, Compounding Returns, provides evidence from Herat, Faryab, and Kabul. Forced returns are shattering household economies and fragile community networks. Drawing on surveys and interviews with more than 400 households who recently lost remittances – money sent home by family members working abroad – the study finds that this loss causes not a temporary income gap but a rapid, multifaceted shock.

• 65% of households depended on remittances for more than three quarters of their income, leaving them highly exposed when those transfers ended.
• 94% percent reported an immediate loss of income, often within days of a family member’s deportation.
• 97% percent fell into debt, mostly to pay for food, healthcare, rent and other basic needs.
• One in five children has been forced out of school because families can no longer afford fees, supplies or transport, or because children must now contribute to household income.
• Community support systems are weakening. Assistance from neighbours and relatives has dropped sharply, and local tensions are rising around unpaid debts.
• Hawala [informal money transfer] flows from Iran have declined, reducing liquidity across entire communities and weakening the primary financial channel families depend on.

“My father migrated to Iran five times. When migrants are arrested at workplaces, they are deported without being allowed to take any money. That is how my father was deported. Before my father migrated, he was the only provider, and work was rarely available. After three or four months in Iran, once he found work and paid his debts, he began sending money. He worked very hard and sent around eight to nine thousand Afghanis [c. US$125] every six to eight weeks through hawala. We spent it on food, clothing, school expenses, and courses,” said Zuleika, a 23-year-old woman from Ghor. 

“Since my father was deported, we have faced serious economic problems. The first change was a lack of food. My father rarely works now. Two of my brothers were in grade eight. After my father returned and could no longer work, we withdrew them from school. They now work for a soup seller. We continue to reduce our expenses. If we cannot buy gas in the future, we may have to burn old clothes to keep warm. There is no support from the community and no assistance. Only my siblings support each other emotionally. I know tailoring and could have taught this skill to my brothers so we could open a small workshop, but we did not have the money. [The provision of] professional workshops for women, men, and returnees, and small capital would make a big difference. Creating job opportunities is the key.”

Remittances were the backbone of survival
 

The research shows that the loss of remittances is not only affecting households but also straining local markets and informal financial systems. Informal credit, particularly shopkeeper lending, previously relied on remittances as a signal of repayment capacity. As remittances have stopped, access to loans has tightened, and community reciprocity has weakened. Sixty percent of surveyed households reported increased tension linked to unpaid debts and scarcity. 

The report warns that if deportations continue while humanitarian funding declines, the risks to children will intensify. Rising debt, shrinking informal safety nets and reduced assistance could accelerate school withdrawal, child labour and social fragmentation.

World Vision Afghanistan is calling for a sequenced response approach in high-return areas. Key priorities include:

• Immediate stabilisation for households that have lost remittances, through targeted emergency assistance and investment in longer-term recovery.
• Investment in primary education, including accessible alternative learning pathways, supported by community-based child protection monitoring.
• Psychosocial support to address household and community stress and conflict.
• Youth-sensitive livelihoods linked to functioning local markets.
• Protection of informal remittance systems, which remain critical to household resilience.

World Vision National Director, Thamindri De Silva, said: 

“Remittances were the economic backbone for many families. When that backbone is removed overnight, the shock travels quickly from income to food, from food to debt, and from debt to children’s wellbeing. To prevent a deepening child protection crisis, we must stabilise communities early and protect children before harmful coping becomes irreversible.” 

Samuel Hall CEO, Nassim Majidi said:

“Our research found a clear pathway: deportation cuts off remittances, income collapses, debt rises, and households are pushed into harmful coping strategies that undermine children’s education, health, and safety. With almost no external support reaching most affected families, the priority must be a sequenced response – stabilise families, protect children, and support recovery through realistic, market-linked livelihoods. 

A key contribution of this study is that it maps the real financial system most families use. With hawala carrying the vast majority of transfers, and shopkeepers and other local intermediaries enabling rural ‘last mile’ delivery, these actors function as critical service providers in crises. Recognising and responsibly supporting these informal providers is essential to keeping households afloat. The opportunity now is to protect and partner with these everyday service providers – so stabilisation reaches families faster and prevents a short-term shock becoming a long-term child wellbeing crisis.”

[ENDS]

Notes to Editors: 
 

World Vision Afghanistan has served communities in four western provinces for nearly 25 years, focusing on child and maternal health, food security and livelihoods, water, sanitation and hygiene, child protection and education. Between October 2024 and September 2025, WVA supported over two million people, including nearly 640,000 children. 

For more information, please contact:

Mark Calder, Advocacy, Policy and Communications Director, World Vision Afghanistan
Email: mark_calder@wvi.org; WhatsApp: +44 (0) 7877 243509; Mob: +93 (0) 729 268478